Epon Khalil

Economist, researcher, exploring the intersection of economics, AI, and human decision-making.

Dhaka, Bangladesh

Profile

I am an economist working on causal inference and policy evaluation. My interest is in how the effect of a programme varies across the people it reaches, rather than in the average alone, and in whether an estimate survives the checks that ought to be run against it.

I trained in economics at the University of Glasgow in the UK and at North South University in Bangladesh. I am the designer and sole developer of Inferendum, a deployed causal inference tool, and I work remotely as Financial Management Officer for a non-profit in the United Kingdom.

I am looking for doctoral research in applied economics, with a focus on digital inclusion and broadband policy.

Inferendum

A deterministic causal inference tool. It takes a dataset and answers whether a treatment caused a change, for whom, and whether that answer holds up. I designed, built and deployed it end to end.

The estimation path contains no language model. Same data in, same answer out, with the seed and package versions recorded alongside the result.

Estimation

  • Doubly robust estimation of average effects, DML and AIPW, with cross-fitting
  • Causal forests for conditional average treatment effects
  • Benjamini-Hochberg correction and simultaneous confidence intervals
  • Propensity score and overlap diagnostics

Trust

  • Placebo and refutation tests
  • E-value and Oster sensitivity bounds
  • An explicit assumptions checklist
  • A synthetic twin that rebuilds the data with an effect of known size, to confirm the pipeline recovers it

inferendum.com

Research and education

Interests

  • Causal inference and causal machine learning in economics
  • Digital inclusion and broadband policy
  • Development economics
  • Policy evaluation using econometric methods

Master's dissertation

Impact of the Internet on Economic Growth in Developing Countries

2021–2022

University of Glasgow.

  • Analysed the relationship between internet penetration and economic outcomes in developing countries using cross-country panel data
  • Applied pooled OLS, fixed-effects, random-effects and instrumental variable models
  • Built a cross-country dataset from World Bank and digital infrastructure indicators
  • Addressed endogeneity between internet adoption and GDP outcomes through an IV strategy
  • Examined effects on GDP per capita levels and on growth rates across specifications

Education

MSc Financial Economics

2021–2022

University of Glasgow, United Kingdom. Merit.

BSc Economics

2016–2020

North South University, Bangladesh. Cum Laude.

Methods and tools

Causal inference

  • Difference-in-differences
  • Instrumental variables
  • Panel fixed effects
  • Doubly robust estimation, DML and AIPW
  • Causal forests and conditional average treatment effects
  • Propensity score and overlap diagnostics

Robustness and inference

  • Placebo and refutation testing
  • Sensitivity analysis, E-value and Oster bounds
  • Multiple testing correction, Benjamini-Hochberg
  • Simultaneous confidence intervals
  • Calibration against synthetic data with known ground truth

Software

  • Python: EconML, DoWhy, scikit-learn, statsmodels, pandas
  • R
  • Stata

Engineering

  • Git and pytest
  • Reproducible pipelines with seed and version provenance
  • Streamlit
  • Deployment

Experience

Financial Management Officer

July 2023 – present

The Whithorn Trust, United Kingdom. Full-time, remote from Dhaka.

  • Maintain the full financial ledger in QuickBooks Online: revenue and expenditure recording, reconciliation, month-end close
  • Administer payroll for two dozen staff, including tax withholdings and statutory deductions
  • Prepare management accounts and financial reports for trustees, supporting budgeting and planning decisions
  • Prepare and file VAT returns, maintaining compliance with HMRC requirements
  • Investigate and resolve discrepancies in the accounts ahead of external audit

Blog

Essays and book reviews, published on Substack.

Read everything on Substack →

Connect

Emailepon.khalil@gmail.com
Toolinferendum.com
Blogessaysbyepon.substack.com
Codegithub.com/eponkhalil
Download CV (PDF)